Domestic metal market outperforms overseas market; lithium carbonate rises for three consecutive days; polysilicon rises by over 4%; coking coal rises by over 3% [SMM Midday Review]

SMM News on July 3:

Metal Markets:

As of the midday break, domestic base metals mostly rose, with SHFE copper up 0.1%, SHFE nickel rising 0.51%, SHFE aluminum gaining 0.15%, SHFE zinc increasing 0.45%, while SHFE tin fell 0.31% and SHFE lead advanced 0.7%.

Additionally, the most-traded aluminum casting futures contract rose 0.15%, alumina futures gained 1.1%, lithium carbonate extended its rally by 1.32%, silicon metal rose 0.31%, and polysilicon continued to surge 4.08%.

All ferrous metals series rose, with iron ore gaining 1.33%, rebar up 0.89%, HRC rising 0.7%, and stainless steel increasing 0.44%. Coking coal and coke markets saw coking coal rise 3.09% and coke climb 1.87%.

In overseas markets as of 11:38, LME metals generally declined, with LME copper down 0.3%, LME aluminum falling 0.27%, LME nickel slightly rising, LME zinc dropping 0.31%, LME tin decreasing 0.34%, and LME lead gaining 0.49%.

For precious metals as of 11:38, COMEX gold fell 0.07% and COMEX silver declined 0.28%, while domestically SHFE gold rose 0.14% and SHFE silver gained 0.64%.

As of the midday break, the most-traded European container shipping futures contract fell 1.5% to 1,866.4 points.

Partial futures market data as of 11:38 on July 3:

》July 3 SMM Metal Spot Prices

Spot & Fundamentals

Silver: According to SMM, narrowing spot-futures price spread combined with sluggish consumption prompted Shanghai-area suppliers of national standard silver ingot warrants to lower TD premium quotes by 1-2 yuan/kg, with individual suppliers... 》Click for details

Macro Front

Domestic Updates:

[June China Warehousing Index at 51% - Operated in Expansion Territory for Eight Consecutive Months] China Federation of Logistics & Purchasing released June's China Warehousing Index on July 3. The index remained in expansion territory for eight consecutive months, indicating sustained favorable operations in the warehousing sector. June's index reached 51%, up 0.5 percentage points MoM. Key sub-indices including new orders, average inventory turnover, business profit, and business activity expectations all rebounded. Specifically, the new orders index rose to 51.6%, up 0.7 percentage points MoM, showing sustained growth in warehousing demand. Consumer goods warehousing performed notably better, with significant increases in new orders indices for food, home appliances, and agricultural products.

The central bank conducted reverse repo operations worth 57.2 billion yuan for a 7-day term, with an operating interest rate of 1.4%. As 509.3 billion yuan of 7-day reverse repos matured today, a net withdrawal of 452.1 billion yuan was realized on the day.

►On July 3, the central parity rate of the RMB against the US dollar in the inter-bank foreign exchange market was set at 7.1523 yuan per US dollar.

US dollar:

As of 11:38, the US dollar index rose by 0.04% to 96.82. The trade agreement reached between the US and Vietnam earlier had eased tensions. In June, private sector employment in the US fell for the first time in over two years, with economic uncertainty hindering hiring, but the low layoff rate continued to support the job market. The market is awaiting the US employment report later in the day for clues on the Fed's policy path. Currently, the market expects 110,000 non-farm payroll jobs to be added in June in the US, a slower pace than the 139,000 added in May. The market now expects the Fed to cut interest rates by 66 basis points between September and December this year.

Other currencies:

Kazuo Takada, a member of the Bank of Japan's Policy Board, said on Thursday that the central bank was at a stage where it could pause interest rate hikes, but should resume the rate hike cycle after a while. Speaking in Mie Prefecture, Japan, he said that the Bank of Japan was gradually approaching its price target, and to maintain this momentum, the central bank should maintain its current accommodative policy stance. (Cailian Press)

Data:

Today, data such as Australia's May goods and services trade balance, monthly export rate for May, monthly import rate for May, Russia's June SPGI Services PMI, Switzerland's June CPI annual rate, final UK June SPGI Services PMI, change in UK June government official net reserves, change in US June non-farm payrolls after seasonal adjustment, US June average hourly earnings annual rate, change in US June private sector non-farm payrolls, US June labor force participation rate, change in US June manufacturing employment after seasonal adjustment, US June unemployment rate, US May trade balance, US initial jobless claims for the week ending June 28, US continued jobless claims for the week ending June 21, Canada's May trade balance, Brazil's June SPGI Services PMI after seasonal adjustment, Brazil's June SPGI composite PMI after seasonal adjustment, revised monthly rate of US May durable goods orders, monthly rate of US May factory orders, and US June ISM non-manufacturing PMI will be released.

Notably: The Ministry of Commerce held its first regular press conference in July; the European Central Bank released the minutes of its June monetary policy meeting; and Bostic, the 2027 FOMC voter and president of the Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta, delivered a speech on US monetary policy.

In addition, it is worth noting that: due to the US Independence Day holiday, the US stock market will be closed on the afternoon of July 3, with the New York Stock Exchange and Nasdaq closing early at 01:00 Beijing time on July 4, while CME Group's equity index futures trading will conclude at 01:15 Beijing time on July 4.

Crude oil update:

Both WTI and Brent crude oil futures declined, with WTI falling 0.82% and Brent dropping 0.85% as of 11:38. Pressure mounted on oil prices after official data showed an unexpected increase in US crude inventories - the world's largest consumer - raising concerns over weakening US demand.

The US Energy Information Administration (EIA) reported a 3.8-million-barrel increase in domestic crude inventories last week, bringing total stocks to 419 million barrels. This contrasted with a consensus forecast expecting an 1.8-million-barrel drawdown. Gasoline demand fell to 8.6 million barrels per day, sparking worries about consumption during the peak summer driving season. (Webstock Inc.)

Spot market overview:

►[SMM Noon Review] Tianjin zinc: Futures rise while spot premiums hold steady

►[SMM HRC Weekly Balance] HRC production fluctuates rangebound; social inventory growth expands this week

►[SMM Daily Review] Macro factors bolster silver prices; narrowing basis + weak consumption prompt spot premium cuts

Other metal spot noon reviews will be updated shortly - please refresh for updates.